Nearing a Bottom?

There has been a big question among realtors around here as to when the buyers are going to jump back into the market and gobble up all these bargins. The following data may hold the answer. They may be waiting for 20% price reductions from the highs in 2004/5.

Several specific markets experiencing a substantial rise in sales - to the tune of 20 percent or better on a year-over-year basis. The notables include Detroit, Ft. Myers, Las Vegas, Orange County, Riverside, San Diego, and Sacramento. These are also markets that have experienced substantial price declines - to the tune of 20 percent of more. Improved affordability conditions have enticed buyers to pick up properties on the cheap.

Measurable sales declines were in the regions where things were holding up well just last year. Seattle and Portland in the Pacific Northwest, Charlotte and Raleigh in the Carolinas, Salt Lake City, and the Texas markets have seen sales decline. Home prices in these regions are still moving up. So, buyers have slowed their buying.

Here in Charleston, single family homes sales prices are down about 5.1% from this same period last year. Some buyers are taking advantage of this and finding some healthy bargains. Many others continue to wait for more price declines. They may get it. And they may not. Trying to guess the bottom is a difficult and dangerous task. Ever see a really nice shirt on sale and decide to think about it for a couple of days and go back to find that it's no longer there?